Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS63 KFGF 091400
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
900 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over parts
  of eastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota today.

- Cold overnight and early morning temperatures are expected
  through Monday, with frost and freeze conditions over parts
  of the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Update to key messages to reflect expiration of frost advisory
this morning. Additional frost and freeze products may be
needed for the overnight/morning period tonight/Sunday morning
as mostly clear skies, decreasing winds, and colder air mass
loft remains in place. Details will be ironed out as latest data
continues to roll in by midday.

UPDATE
Issued at 715 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The Friday evening shift set the stage for lower dew points and
RH values from what was in the NBM by going with more HRRR
based on past 2 days. That was kept. Soundings suggest a very
well mixed layer to around 780 mb this afternoon with about 26
kts to mix down within the RRV. NBM gusts and winds seemed
reasonable and kept. Kept the SPS for near critical fire weather
in WC MN due to lowest RH values mid 20s percent and then in
coord with BIS did add near critical in HWO for similar RH
values for DVL area into southeast ND for this afternoon.

It was agreed to hold off mentioning any frost/freeze headlines
for this upcoming night until the current one goes away this
morning. Narrow cloud band Fargo to Park Rapids area otherwise
skies mainly clear, exception Roseau-Warroad where clouds
dropping southeast from Canada. Low temps in most areas 32-35 in
NE ND and far NW MN with pockets of 20s via NDAWN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft with a shortwave that is currently over
Saskatchewan digging down into the Upper Midwest tonight.
Surface trough axis has moved into west central Minnesota and
most of the winds have shifted to the northwest, although the
push of truly cooler air remains up in Canada. That front
pushes through tonight, with most model runs showing some
showers coming with it this evening. While rain amounts at this
point look to be a few hundredths and have minimal impact, some
erratic winds can develop as some of the rain evaporates. Weak
high pressure builds in behind the front for Saturday before
moving east on Sunday. Heights rising for much of the day on
Monday ahead of the next shortwave that will swing through
Monday night and Tuesday. Northwesterly flow aloft through mid-
week, with model solutions starting to diverge for Thursday and
Friday. Signal in ensembles for temperatures back up above
seasonal averages, but timing and strength of precipitation is
unknown.

...Red flag conditions through this evening...

Much of the Red River Valley down into southeastern ND and west
central MN is below 25 percent RH currently, with several spots
near the SD border lower than 20 percent. Winds are around 25
mph in the Red River Valley and 20 mph outside of it, with some
gusts up to 35 mph at times. Windy conditions into the evening
as the cold front comes down, although RH values will be
starting to come up by that point. For now, will keep the
expiration time of 01Z but will continue to monitor. A bit
cooler with slightly higher RH values over 30 percent for
tomorrow. Winds will remain breezy and there could still be some
near critical conditions for a time, but overall the weekend
looks less like Red Flag then today.

...Frost and freeze headlines...

With many spots putting out plants for Mother`s Day, we are
starting to issue frost and freeze headlines starting this
weekend. NBM probabilities for temperatures less than 36 degrees
are 50 percent and higher along and north of Highway 200,
although there are some warmer temps progged for the northern
Red River Valley. With the shortwave moving through this evening
and bringing some showers and cloud cover, conditions will not
be ideal for frost formation but enough of a chance of getting
below 36 to put out an advisory for tonight. More widespread
cold temperatures expected tomorrow night, with high probabilities
of under 36 all the way down to the South Dakota border. Chances
for under 32 degrees are over 80 percent in portions of
northeastern ND and northwestern MN, with some 30 to 40 percent
even of under 28 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 715 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Do expect VFR sky and vsby thru tonight. For TAF locations
predominately scattered into early aftn, then watching for
potential BKN cloud deck moving into NE ND and NW MN this aftn
affecting GFK-TVF-BJI. Cloud bases look to be 5000 ft agl and
higher. Gusty NW winds today....went max gusts in TAFs around 25
kts but briefly higher may occur this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux